RSID: <<2022-06-23T23:31Z MFSK-32 @ 9265000+1500>>

Welcome to program 260 of Shortwave Radiogram.

I'm Kim Andrew Elliott in Arlington, Virginia USA.

Here is the lineup for today's program, in MFSK modes as noted:

  1:35 MFSK32: Program preview (now)
  2:40 MFSK32: Great Lakes levels will continue to rise
  8:16 MFSK64: Melting Arctic ice and international shipping
12:57 MFSK64: This week's images
28:18 MFSK32: Closing announcements


Please send reception reports to radiogram@verizon.net

And visit http://swradiogram.net

We're on Twitter now: @SWRadiogram

From Phys.org:

Great Lakes levels are likely to see continued rise in next three
decades

by American Geophysical Union
June 22, 2022

Lake levels in many of the U.S.' Great Lakes are projected to
rise steadily over the next few decades, with the Lake
Michigan-Huron system potentially rising by well over half a
meter by 2050, according to new research to be presented at the
Frontiers in Hydrology meeting this week. Credit: NASA Goddard,
MODIS Rapid Response Team, and Jeff Schmaltz

The Great Lakes in the Midwest U.S. comprise the largest unfrozen
freshwater stores on Earth. But too much of a good thing can
create problems. New research using the most advanced regional
climate modeling systems finds that the baseline lake level for
Lake Superior, Michigan-Huron and Erie are expected to rise by
roughly 20 to 50 centimeters by 2050 as a result of climate
change.

Like sea level rise, higher lake levels can increase coastal
erosion, change navigation considerations and increase the risk
of coastal flooding. More than 30 million people live along the
lakes' roughly 4,500 miles of coastline in the U.S. and Canada,
including the cities of Chicago, Detroit and Buffalo, New York.
Storms and flooding associated with recent record highs have
already caused problems for people, infrastructure and
environments.

New research to be presented at the Frontiers in Hydrology
Meeting on Thursday, 23 June vastly improves upon previous
predictions for how water levels in Lakes Superior,
Michigan-Huron and Erie will change in the coming decades.
Climate modeler Pengfei Xue, of Michigan Technological
University, and his team for the first time combined a
high-resolution regional climate model and a 3D hydrodynamic
model, along with hydrologic models to hone projections for
lake-level rise.

The study primarily analyzed precipitation over the lakes,
evaporation rates, basin runoff, and inter-lake flows to see how
lake level would change by 2050, under the highest-emission
scenario. The new, advanced modeling system the researchers
developed allowed each of those factors to influence each other
in a more realistic way than ever before modeled.

"While we know that all these components must be analyzed and
projected holistically, the lake-atmosphere interactions were
oversimplified in the past," says Xue. "What we have built is a
system that gives a better representation of the complexity of
hydrodynamics and lake-atmosphere interaction and contributes to
a more advanced modeling framework necessary for improving the
Great Lakes' hydroclimate projections. This is particularly
evident through the markedly improved simulation of lake
evaporation."

While there is uncertainty in the precise magnitude of change due
to underlying uncertainty in the climate models, the new modeling
system projects the lake levels will increase on average as
compared to the 2010-2019 period. Based on the average of the
models, the water level of Lake Superior is projected to rise 19
centimeters, Lake Erie by 28 centimeters, and the Lake
Michigan-Huron system by 44 centimeters on average. But at the
high end of the possible range, Lake Erie could see 54
centimeters of rise and Lake Michigan-Huron could see 80
centimeters of rise.

Higher lake levels mean that storms, flooding events and natural
variability will have more extreme impacts on the lake shores,
and coastal decision makers will have to adapt to higher lake
levels in the coming years.

"Looking at the coastal hazards, their probability is going to
increase and they will be more severe," says Xue.

https://phys.org/news/2022-06-great-lakes-decades.html
 

Shortwave Radiogram now changes to MFSK64 ...


 

RSID: <<2022-06-23T23:38Z MFSK-64 @ 9265000+1500>>



This is Shortwave Radiogram in MFSK64

Please send your reception report to radiogram@verizon.net


From Phys.org:

Melting Arctic ice could transform international shipping routes,
study finds

by Brown University
June 20,2022

With climate change rapidly warming the world's oceans, the
future of the Arctic Ocean looks grim. Climate models show that
parts of the Arctic that were once covered in ice year-round are
warming so quickly that they will be reliably ice-free for months
on end in as few as two decades. The Arctic's changing climate
will endanger countless species that thrive in sub-zero
temperatures, scientists say.

Another critical consequence of melting ice in the Arctic? The
potential for shorter, more eco-friendly maritime trade routes
that bypass the Russian-controlled Northern Sea Route.

In a new study, a pair of climate scientists at Brown University
worked with a legal scholar at the University of Maine School of
Law to predict how Arctic Ocean ice melt could affect the
regulation of shipping routes over the next few decades. They
projected that by 2065, the Arctic's navigability will increase
so greatly that it could yield new trade routes in international
waters—not only reducing the shipping industry's carbon footprint
but also weakening Russia's control over trade in the Arctic.

The study was published on Monday, June 6, in the Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences.

"There's no scenario in which melting ice in the Arctic is good
news," said Amanda Lynch, the study's lead author and a professor
of Earth, environmental and planetary sciences at Brown. "But the
unfortunate reality is that the ice is already retreating, these
routes are opening up, and we need to start thinking critically
about the legal, environmental and geopolitical implications."

Lynch, who has studied climate change in the Arctic for nearly 30
years, said that as a first step, she worked with Xueke Li, a
postdoctoral research associate at the Institute at Brown for
Environment and Society, to model four navigation scenarios based
on four likely outcomes of global actions to halt climate change
in the coming years. Their projections showed that unless global
leaders successfully constrain warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius
over the next 43 years, climate change will likely open up
several new routes through international waters by the middle of
this century.

According to Charles Norchi—director of the Center for Oceans and
Coastal Law at Maine Law, a visiting scholar at Brown's Watson
Institute for International and Public Affairs, and one of the
study's co-authors—those changes could have major implications
for world trade and global politics.

Norchi explained that since 1982, the United Nations Convention
on the Law of the Sea has given Arctic coastal states enhanced
authority over primary shipping routes. Article 234 of the
convention states that in the name of "the prevention, reduction
and control of marine pollution from vessels," countries whose
coastlines are near Arctic shipping routes have the ability to
regulate the route's maritime traffic, so long as the area
remains ice-covered for the majority of the year.

Norchi said that for decades, Russia has used Article 234 for its
own economic and geopolitical interests. One Russian law requires
all vessels passing through the Northern Sea Route to be piloted
by Russians. The country also requires that passing vessels pay
tolls and provide advance notice of their plans to use the route.
The heavy regulation is one among many reasons why major shipping
companies often bypass the route's heavy regulations and high
costs and instead use the Suez and Panama canals—longer, but
cheaper and easier, trade routes.

But as the ice near Russia's northern coast begins to melt,
Norchi said, so will the country's grip on shipping through the
Arctic Ocean.

"The Russians will, I'm sure, continue to invoke Article 234,
which they will attempt to back up with their might," Norchi
said. "But they will be challenged by the international
community, because Article 234 will cease to be applicable if
there's no ice covered-area for most of the year. Not only that,
but with melting ice, shipping will move out of Russian
territorial waters and into international waters. If that
happens, Russia can't do much, because the outcome is driven by
climate change and shipping economics."

According to Lynch, previous studies have shown that Arctic
routes are 30% to 50% shorter than the Suez Canal and Panama
Canal routes, with transit time reduced by an estimated 14 to 20
days. That means that if international Arctic waters warm enough
to open up new pathways, shipping companies could reduce their
greenhouse gas emissions by about 24% while also saving money and
time.

"These potential new Arctic routes are a useful thing to consider
when you recall the moment when the Ever Given ship was stranded
in the Suez Canal, blocking an important shipping route for
several weeks," Lynch said. "Diversifying trade routes—especially
considering new routes that can't be blocked, because they're not
canals—gives the global shipping infrastructure a lot more
resiliency."

And it's better to ask questions about the future of shipping
now, Lynch said, rather than later, given how long it can take to
establish international laws. (For context, she said, it took 10
years for world governments to negotiate the Convention on the
Law of the Sea.) Lynch hopes that kicking off the conversation on
the Arctic's trade future with well-researched scholarship might
help world leaders make informed decisions about protecting the
Earth's climate from future harm.

"Flagging these coming changes now could help prevent them from
emerging as a crisis that has to be resolved rapidly, which
almost never turns out well," Lynch said. "To actually craft
international agreements with some forethought and deliberation
is certainly a better way to go."

https://phys.org/news/2022-06-arctic-ice-international-shipping-routes.html

 

This is Shortwave Radiogram in MFSK64

Please send your reception report to radiogram@verizon.net

 

This week's images ...







Sunset at Clacton-on-Sea, England, June 19.
https://bbc.in/3xGlvM0 ...

Sending Pic:219x124C;






 

St Magnus Cathedral in Kirkwall, Scotland. https://bbc.in/3HJGNgx
...

Sending Pic:187x187C;







Lenticular clouds over Harpers Ferry, West Virginia, June 20.
https://bit.ly/3HSKv7B ...

Sending Pic:206x164C;


 

A sailboat off Annapolis, Maryland, with the Chesapeake Bay
Bridge in the background, June 19. https://bit.ly/3N9D50V ...

Sending Pic:207x144C;








A flower at Harkness Memorial State Park in Connecticut.
https://bit.ly/3bb8anq ...

Sending Pic:141x205C;








Indian Blanket (Gaillardia pulchella) at Crystal River Preserve
State Park, Florida. https://bit.ly/3ODOxTI ...

Sending Pic:175x199C;








June 18 was the 12th Annual Dragonfly Day at Warriors' Path State
Park, Tennessee. https://bit.ly/3QLIcHI ...

Sending Pic:188x189C;







Our painting of the week is 'Moonliight walk through the rice
fields' by Saitō Kazu (斉藤 和, born 1960).
https://bit.ly/3ybSglY ...

Sending Pic:165x204C;







Shortwave Radiogram returns to MFSK32 ...




Shortwave Radiogram returns to MFSK32 ...


RSID: <<2022-06-23T23:58Z MFSK-32 @ 9265000+1500>>



This is Shortwave Radiogram in MFSK32 ...

 

Shortwave Radiogram is transmitted by:

WRMI, Radio Miami International, wrmi.net

and

WINB Shortwave, winb.com


Please send reception reports to radiogram@verizon.net

And visit http://swradiogram.net

Twitter: @SWRadiogram or twitter.com/swradiogram

I'm Kim Elliott. Please join us for the next Shortwave
Radiogram.